A fairly well-advertised tropical wave, now Invest 93, is moving toward the Yucatan or the Yucatan Channel. GFS and Euro ensembles have been hinting at this scenario since last week. The shift in the upper high west and the deepening upper trough along the East coast is a pattern that draws tropical systems northward toward the Northern and Eastern Gulf coasts. The NHC has a high chance for development. The Euro has been more aggressive with development for the last few days, with the GFS now coming on board with a tropical storm developing. They both indicate a motion toward FL once in the Gulf due to the upper trough and cold front. Dry air and wind shear could hinder development. Obviously, in the genesis phase of a tropical system, much can happen, and models aren't nearly as reliable. As far as steering currents, an upper low to the west will keep the wave moving northward. Once this feature is gone, the wave almost stalls near the Yucatan on Sunday and into Monday. Once the upper trough digs southward, that will begin drawing the system north further into the Gulf. The GFS has a bit more of a westerly bias based on an upper low developing over east Texas, possibly drawing the storm more toward the FL panhandle. The Euro, while also picking up on the upper low, keeps it much weaker and not impacting the steering. The way the models have performed thus far, I'm still confident that this won't be an issue for us, but we'll watch over the weekend. Stay tuned!