As mentioned for the last several days, we're watching a tropical disturbance in the western Caribbean near Central America. GFS and Euro ensembles have been hinting at this scenario since last week. The shift in the upper high west and the deepening upper trough along the East coast is a pattern that draws tropical systems northward toward the Northern and Eastern Gulf coasts. The NHC finally began to highlight this area Wednesday evening and now has a high chance a depression or storm forms by early next week as this feature lifts north toward the south-central Gulf. The Euro has been more aggressive with development than the GFS, so we haven't really seen model consensus yet. However, they both indicate a motion toward the west coast of FL once in the Gulf due to the upper trough swinging down over the eastern United States. With warm water temps and what appears to be a lack of wind shear early next week, development is more likely. However, there will also be abundant dry air. Obviously, in the genesis phase of a tropical system, much can happen, and models aren't nearly as reliable. But I'm a bit more confident that this won't be an issue for the north-central Gulf coast. However, it's always a good idea to stay tuned and check back through the weekend to make sure there aren't any changes in the forecast.