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Description
No areas are expected to develop in the next week.
The 2024 hurricane season began on Saturday, June 1. Currently, there are no active spots across the Atlantic basin to watch, and no development is expected in the next week.
Aggressive forecasts for the season as a whole have been issued from nearly all forecasting outlets, including NOAA. NOAA predicts 17-25 named storms, of which 8-13 will become hurricanes and 4-7 major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher. (Average season numbers are 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.)
We are shifting from an El Nino weather pattern to a neutral one. Forecasts call for La Nina to begin between June and August. This would put us in the hurricane-favorable La Nina pattern during the peak of hurricane season in September. This pattern suppresses wind shear in the Atlantic basin and typically allows hurricanes to form and strengthen more easily.
The eventual La Nina pattern, combined with warmer-than-average ocean water in the central and eastern Atlantic, is expected to enhance hurricane formation later in the season.
Hurricane season officially lasts for six months until November 30, but 95 percent of major hurricane activity typically happens from August to October.