As Earl has failed to become a major hurricane as it moves away from Bermuda, the likelihood is very low. So we have not yet seen our first major hurricane of the season! That's fine by me!! Invest 95 which at one time was given a 70% high likelihood of development has been decreased to 10%. Dry air and wind shear have won out. And that appears to be the pattern for the next several days with Saharan dust over a few others areas the NHC is highlighting. Once Earl is gone, it's possible we won't have an active storm in the Atlantic around the peak of the season. In fact, Saturday is the climatological peak of hurricane season. In an average season, by September 10th, we would have seen 8 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 1 major. This year continues to run below average with 5 named and 2 hurricanes. Of course, we are only at the top of the mountain and late September and early October are still very much the heart of the season. Models continue to keep us quiet through next week. Let's keep the strong cold fronts coming to block the tropics!