The tropics need to be watched more closely as we get ready for the Fourth of July holiday weekend. Saharan Dust is expected to thin out over our area, while a frontal boundary will interact with our very warm Gulf waters. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring the possible development of a low pressure that could attain tropical characteristics as it meanders close to us here at home. NHC officials have placed the Tampa Bay area at a low risk of tropical development. The European Model shows the window of opportunity for tropical development with a trough along the East Coast by the Fourth of July. This is not the time to cancel any plans, but just keep checking back in with us. Regardless of development, expect an increase in our typical showers and thunderstorms by late week into the weekend as the atmospheric pattern will be ripe for deep tropical moisture.