In 2023, the U.S. imported $4.6 billion worth of tequila and $108 million worth of mezcal from Mexico. President Donald Trump's wider tariff threat looms, something analysts say could trigger a recession in Mexico. The imposition of broader tariffs would likely start a trade war, with Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum promising reciprocal tariffs, both of which would result in price increases for consumers. The Mexican province of Jalisco is the spiritual home of tequila. Many of the biggest tequila brands here are owned by American based companies such Seagrams or Bacardi. But there are also smaller companies that have placed their investments on both sides of the border, like "Cocula," a premium craft brand. Owner Diego Milán says tariffs would make their product less competitive. "It is really going to have a strong impact, because on the shelf you are competing with other premium drinks such as cognac, whiskey, or some very good vodkas. And if all of these come from a country where there are no tariffs, our product becomes in this case 25% more expensive." The tequila production and supply chain starts with the farmers, although many companies like Milan's own the whole chain. Efraín Velázquez is a small farmer who recently decided to grow organic blue agave at his farm near the Chapala lake in Jalisco state. He says that if tariffs are imposed he will look to partner with a German company to produce agave syrup, rather than selling his product to Tequila companies.