We're keeping a close eye on some activity in the tropics as we prepare for the Fourth of July holiday weekend. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring the possible development of an area of low pressure that could slowly form as it moves closer to Florida's Gulf Coast or the southeastern U.S. Atlantic coast. Saharan dust, which can help limit hurricane activity, is expected to thin out over our area as a frontal boundary interacts with our very warm Gulf waters. NHC officials have placed the Tampa Bay area at a medium (40%) risk of tropical development. But whether it becomes a named storm or not (the next name on the list is Chantal), this system is expected to tap into deep tropical moisture — and that means it’s likely to bring periods of heavy rain to Florida. Is there a tropical system near Florida? The European Model shows a small window of opportunity for tropical development with a trough stretching from the East Coast, across Florida and into the Gulf by the Fourth of July. Models are starting to come into better agreement that a brief area of low pressure could form off the east coast over the weekend and move towards the Carolinas. This is not the time to cancel any plans, but just keep checking back in with us. Regardless of development, expect an increase in our typical showers and thunderstorms by late week into the weekend as the atmospheric pattern will be ripe for deep tropical moisture.