Tropical Storm Erin is still looking a little ragged Wednesday morning with storms firing off and on, mainly on the west side of the circulation. There’s some easterly wind shear over the storm and not much in the way of organized bands. Satellite estimates put winds in the 40–45 mph range. It hasn’t been able to strengthen much the past couple of days thanks to marginal water temperatures and some dry air in the mid and lower levels. That should start to change over the next couple of days as it moves over warmer water and the environment becomes more favorable. Most models still bring Erin to hurricane strength later this week. Right now it’s moving west at about 20 mph, guided by high pressure to the north. By mid to late week a weakness in that ridge should slow Erin down and turn it more to the west-northwest. The official track is on the southern side of the guidance, but remember—forecasts 4 to 5 days out can be off by more than 150 miles.